Is prediction possible? Chaotic behavior of Multiple Equilibria Regulation Model in cellular automata topology

In this article, we present the Multiple Equilibria Regulation (MER) Model in cellular automata topology. As argued in previous explorations of the model, for certain parameter values, the behavior of the system exhibits transient chaos (namely, the system is unpredictable but ends in a final steady state). In order to approach empirical reality, we introduce a cellular automata topology. Examining the outcome of the simulations leads us to conclude that for certain parameter values tested, the system yields chaotic behavior. Thus, cellular automata contribution has proven crucial, because the introduced topology converts the behavior of the system from transient chaos to “pure” chaos, i.e., the system is not only unpredictable on the long run but, in addition, it will never rest in a final steady state. According to these findings, authors argue the theoretical hypothesis that the urge for “prediction” in social sciences should be reconsidered in terms of “predictability horizon”. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 10: 23–36, 2004